Home Prices Just Did Something They Haven't Done Since 2021

Realtor.com released a midyear update to its 2026 housing forecast, and the headline number is that they now expect home prices to grow about 1.2 percent this year. That's slower than what they predicted back in January.

Sounds like a nothing story. It isn't.

Inflation is running faster than 1.2 percent. So when you adjust for what everything else costs, home prices are effectively going down right now. Not crashing. Just finally, for the first time in about three years, not outrunning everybody's paycheck.

That gap between what people earn and what houses cost has been the whole problem since 2021. It's narrowing. Nobody's writing headlines about it because "prices grew a little less than expected" doesn't sell.

What it doesn't mean

It doesn't mean prices are dropping. The national median existing home price hit $440,600 in June, an all time high, and that's the 36th straight month of year over year increases. Here in Lane County we've been running around $465,000. Nothing about this forecast says those numbers are about to fall.

It also doesn't mean rates are cooperating. Freddie Mac had the 30 year at 6.66 percent at the end of July, up from the week before and close to an 11 month high. Oil prices are pushing on that and nobody knows where it lands.

So this isn't a green light. It's just the first honest piece of good news buyers have gotten in a while.

What it does mean if you're buying here

Prices flattening in real terms, plus more inventory than we've had, plus sellers who will actually negotiate again. That combination hasn't existed in Lane County in years.

I'm seeing it in the field. Repairs, closing cost help, rate buydowns. A year ago those conversations went nowhere. Now they go somewhere, at least on homes that have been sitting.

The sharp ones priced right still move fast. That part hasn't changed and probably won't.

The waiting question

Everybody asks me some version of should I wait for rates.

I don't know where rates go. Nobody does. But I've watched three straight years of people wait for a better moment and it hasn't shown up for one of them. Prices climbed while they saved. The house they could have bought in 2023 costs more now.

And if rates do come down later, you refinance. You can change your rate. You can't change the price you paid.

If you want to talk through what this actually means for your situation, call me. No pitch.

Genevieve Partsch, eXp Realty 541-543-3610 gennypartsch@gmail.com