March 2026 Interest Rate & Housing Market Outlook

by Genevieve Partsch

What to Expect in Eugene, Oregon

As we move into March, there’s a noticeable shift happening in both interest rates and the housing market. Spring is historically when momentum builds, and this year is shaping up to follow that pattern.

Interest Rates: Stabilizing With Modest Relief

After the volatility of the past few years, mortgage rates have begun to stabilize. National averages for 30-year fixed mortgages are currently hovering around the low 6 percent range. While this is not the ultra-low environment we saw during 2020 and 2021, it is meaningfully lower than the peaks we experienced when rates approached 7 percent.

Economic forecasts for 2026 suggest we are unlikely to see dramatic drops into the 4 percent range. Instead, most analysts expect rates to remain relatively steady between 6 and 6.5 percent for much of the year. The Federal Reserve continues to monitor inflation data carefully, and while future rate adjustments are possible, a rapid decline does not appear imminent.

For buyers, this means improved predictability. For sellers, it means confidence is returning to the market.

Eugene Housing Market: Spring Momentum Building

Eugene continues to experience limited housing inventory compared to buyer demand. That supply constraint has been a consistent factor in keeping home values relatively stable, even in higher-rate environments.

As rates settle into a more predictable range, we are seeing several trends locally:

Buyer activity is increasing as we enter the spring season.
Well-priced homes in desirable neighborhoods are moving efficiently.
Homes requiring updates or repairs are taking longer and attracting more price sensitivity.
Cash buyers remain active, particularly in rural and fixer properties.

Spring typically brings the highest number of active buyers to the market. With rates no longer spiking unpredictably, many buyers who paused last year are beginning to reengage.

What This Means for Buyers

A stable rate environment in the low 6 percent range provides clarity. While affordability is not what it was during the pandemic years, many buyers are recognizing that waiting for dramatically lower rates may not be realistic.

Additionally, buyers today often have more negotiation leverage than they did in the ultra-competitive multiple offer cycles of previous years.

What This Means for Sellers

Pricing strategy is critical this spring.

Homes that show well and are priced in alignment with current market data are still generating strong interest. Overpricing, however, is being corrected more quickly by the market than in prior years.

The first two weeks on market remain the most important window for generating momentum. With spring buyer traffic increasing, strategic pricing and preparation can position a home very well.